Collector Vehicles Values and the Future with Driverless Cars

doug720

 
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I worked the King of the Moto's over the weekend. The first race was the extreme night race, which had the final finishers and DNF'rs not clearing the course until well after 11 PM.

We had time for a long conversation about the future of collector vehicles values, and what is going to happen as the current owners age out. Will the next group of younger people, ones who will likely be exposed to driverless cars, who may not ever become vehicle enthusiasts, ones who may never even get a drivers license, become buyers?

One of the group was part of the team that sold the Nardi Ferrari several years ago. He told us that there is concern in the industry that collector car values will start a downward spiral when there are no more buyers with connections and passion for cars and mechanical things.

One of my friends father is the premier Duesenberg restorer in the US. He told us, he is glad to be retiring soon, as the market is changing, and not in a good way! He too thinks the market for collector cars will die out from the lack of buyers with passion for cars.

Look how the market has changed over the years, model A's, and earlier models are much less popular, having been replaced by more modern collector cars. This happens as the buyers changed...They buy what they remember or have a connection to!

It was in some ways, a confirmation of what I have seen in other activities like fishing, camping, hunting, etc. Computers are changing people, especially kids, who are not being exposed to these activities. Look at number of kids who are getting drivers licenses. In our daughters high school, less than 40% of the kids who are eligible to get their drivers license have!

In my day, we were at the DMV at 15 1/2 for our permit and took the test as close to our birthday as possible. Not anymore...They UBER! When they start using their Iphone to call the car and tell it to drive them anywhere they want while they play video games, it may be game over for the collector car market!

We concluded this trend will likely have a negative affect on future collector car values. What do my fellow muddr's think?
 

gcrump01

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I would tend to agree. I've noticed that even my kids don't show much interest in my vehicles. I remember helping my dad fix everything. I had never heard of a repairman, as we fixed everything ourselves. While dad is not really a car guy he did teach me how to diagnose & repair all kinds of things. I really think the idea or repairing & restoring old vehicles is what I like most. While I do like driving the old stuff, my new 4Runner is much more comfortable to drive. My kids like to ride in the old stuff probably because people notice them. The are certainly more interested in their phones.

Sad....
 

whitey45

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I think there are enough passionate car nuts on the planet to keep the market alive and well. My 9 year old boy has never had video games and is in the shop with me everyday. He is already concerned he will have to buy a driverless car, I assured him that will never happen! I do think this absurd notion that a $3500 Fj40 is now somehow worth $15k? Funny thing about the market is 90% of eBay cars are unsold?
 

UltraFJ40

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I think there are enough passionate car nuts on the planet to keep the market alive and well. My 9 year old boy has never had video games and is in the shop with me everyday. He is already concerned he will have to buy a driverless car, I assured him that will never happen! I do think this absurd notion that a $3500 Fj40 is now somehow worth $15k? Funny thing about the market is 90% of eBay cars are unsold?
Hmmm, I actually have quite the opposite experience but a similar result. I've had my son (now 10) involved in helping disassemble and reassemble vintage parts (85 Spree, 71 & 80 TLC, and some older VW's) as things came up. He did it but mostly out of commitment to abide by what I asked. A few years ago he began playing video games online (mostly auto based) and just told me last night at dinner that he had this suspension set up that he created and put it on a Zonda R Type but it was kind of crappy that they only had newer 4WD vehicles and no older Land Cruisers. "I could blast right through that stuff with a 40".

I forget what the game is but lately when we're out, he'll take a picture of an older Toyota (or any other) and text it to me.

Maybe there's hope, just maybe.
 
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Trollhole

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My kids still ask to ride in the 40 all the time so I'm pretty sure my business is secure for at least the next 30 years. After that who knows. I don't see corvettes, 60' camaro's, or the old school muscle cars ever loosing value. Cars out of the 30's,40's and 50's maybe. One of my dream cars is a 34 Plymouth coupe.
 

Mace

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My older son loves the Scout 80 that will be come his daily driver in three years, and my younger son is more of a gearhead than I am. they'll be just fine.

BTW, I think I (and Woody and Smtyblt) were behind you at the Sunday morning KOM race. Were you in the dark blue 60 with the turbo diesel badges? My Youngest was right at the front of the line with a orange Maxtraxx Hoodie on. :)
 

doug720

 
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That was my 60 and likely me limping along around the start - Had a new knee installed 4 weeks ago.

There will be gear heads for a long time, but I think collector values will decline as younger people who never learn to drive see vehicles as just another appliance! No passion.

I have been involved with motorcycle racing since the late 60's, and our club is part of the largest amateur racing series in the US - Big 6 GP Series, which I was a founding member and the chairman. Our races average nearly 1200 entries per weekend. We have 56 classes, with many age groups. All the classes are shrinking, except for the 40, 50, 60 and 70 year old classes, with the 50+ now being the largest!

This is showing how many activities have lost their appeal to many young people...Sad!

As the head of Uber recently said - "I don't expect my 10 year old son to ever learn to drive a car!"
 
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I worked the King of the Moto's over the weekend. The first race was the extreme night race, which had the final finishers and DNF'rs not clearing the course until well after 11 PM.

We had time for a long conversation about the future of collector vehicles values, and what is going to happen as the current owners age out. Will the next group of younger people, ones who will likely be exposed to driverless cars, who may not ever become vehicle enthusiasts, ones who may never even get a drivers license, become buyers?

One of the group was part of the team that sold the Nardi Ferrari several years ago. He told us that there is concern in the industry that collector car values will start a downward spiral when there are no more buyers with connections and passion for cars and mechanical things.

One of my friends father is the premier Duesenberg restorer in the US. He told us, he is glad to be retiring soon, as the market is changing, and not in a good way! He too thinks the market for collector cars will die out from the lack of buyers with passion for cars.

Look how the market has changed over the years, model A's, and earlier models are much less popular, having been replaced by more modern collector cars. This happens as the buyers changed...They buy what they remember or have a connection to!

It was in some ways, a confirmation of what I have seen in other activities like fishing, camping, hunting, etc. Computers are changing people, especially kids, who are not being exposed to these activities. Look at number of kids who are getting drivers licenses. In our daughters high school, less than 40% of the kids who are eligible to get their drivers license have!

In my day, we were at the DMV at 15 1/2 for our permit and took the test as close to our birthday as possible. Not anymore...They UBER! When they start using their Iphone to call the car and tell it to drive them anywhere they want while they play video games, it may be game over for the collector car market!

We concluded this trend will likely have a negative affect on future collector car values. What do my fellow muddr's think?
I think this is well-written & well said. For me, I sense the exact same. However, I'd like to add environmental concerns (an increasingly active strive away from less-efficient combustion engines, and a simultaneous strive toward electric type motors). Good read ! ~Skydog
 
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There will be gear heads for a long time, but I think collector values will decline as younger people who never learn to drive see vehicles as just another appliance! No passion.
I'd say "gear heads" will quickly become more inclined toward robotics, UAV's & aerial drones, and of course now rapid moving technologies that increasingly combine both of these into autonomous machines. Most won't care what an FJ40 is or was. My high school aged nephew & niece - sure don't. And due to increasingly environmental pressures, governments & societies will likely begin to push away from such "vintage" vehicles as well.

As far as physically driving, I'm finding most of the younger generation would rather be transported (as in Uber), that they can continue to be 100% involved with smart-phone type devices. As urban areas continue to develop & become sophisticated, and as urban sprawl continues to expand outward, those who are actually interested in the adventures of the physical outdoors - will, in my opinion, become increasingly less. And parallel to this, I'd believe same will be said about those who would become interested in the infantry type military. I'd think more & more of the younger generations will enter into the military for technology (or medical) purposes only. ~Skydog
 
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My kids still ask to ride in the 40 all the time so I'm pretty sure my business is secure for at least the next 30 years. After that who knows. I don't see corvettes, 60' camaro's, or the old school muscle cars ever loosing value. Cars out of the 30's,40's and 50's maybe. One of my dream cars is a 34 Plymouth coupe.
Marshall : I do indeed agree with you. Cars won't likely be driven off a vertical cliff. The BJ/FJ40's etc will still be around for a while. But REALITY IS, the interest in them will continue to decline - in a diminishing-curve type way. The cliff may not be vertical, but we can see it now that it will slope downward. Not upward. Hence, there will become fewer & fewer young people, like your son, who are interested/inclined in learning how to "switch gears."

I can not wait to be able to rebuild my own FJ40 - that I can drive it the rest of my life (with hope, literally). But I'd be willing to think that for as many people that literally drool over it, when it's one day physically on the road, people, in general, will respond to it's 'appearance' favorably - but will then move on with their Tesla, etc. ... if that makes sense. ~Skydog.
 
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I think at my age (mid 30s) I'm at an odd age to have an opinion on this.

I had almost no interest in cars, at all, until I was able to drive. This was largely in part because my parents didn't ever put me behind the wheel until I had a permit- nothing off road, on a beach, or in a parking lot.

I think Uber will become a regulatory nightmare, most likely coming to an end. I tend to think the lackluster teens have is across the board, not just with getting a license.

Driverless cars and cars with over the top nannies scare me - not because of the idea/ability of the cars, but the complacency of the person behind the wheel coupled with questionable security of the networks they're tied to.

I think there will always be collectors- but 'what' is collected will most likely change. To what? I don't know.

I'm doing what I can with our 3yo son to get him interested in cars and to have a better "head start" with them than I did.
 
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The pic below is the ad picture I'm seeing, here, at the top of the page. I'd say the truck & the ATV's, shown, are more descriptive of what the typical adult & the common younger generation has within their mindset. And unfortunately, when finished using it, such newer technologies are often-time merely "thrown away" or discarded. And the manufacturers hastily make even newer & even more modern - replacements.
ui.jpg


Go beyond this (above), and here's what the modern "thinkers" are actually striving for :

ao.jpg


au.jpg


ac.jpg


al.jpg

Etc, etc.

Very, Very different than a 40-Series or 60-Series, or 80-Series, etc.

What then is the logic that the current younger generation is inherently actually striving for ?? Vintage things ??... As much as I & you are fanatics for older Land Cruisers, is their strive for the ones that you & I must exert a fair amount of energy to drive & navigate ? As our World's natural environs increasingly with haste diminish, are we not falsely believing, at least to some extent, that the future, even the near future, for "antiquated" vehicles - will be the same ? ... Just asking.
 
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