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Old 06-25-05, 06:46 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Market dynamics and motor vehicle theft .. study

I came across this article/study ..

Quote:
4 TOYOTA LANDCRUISER 80 SERIES

4.1 Vehicle Overview

4.1.1 Technical Specifications

The Toyota Landcruiser 80 series, manufactured between 1992 and 1998 came with a large number of model variations. Initially there was the standard, RV, GXL and Sahara model options. By 1994 a ‘Blue Marlin’ variant was produced; 1995 saw the addition of DX, ‘World Cup’ and ‘Advantage Limited Edition’ models; in 1996 a ‘Winter Limited Edition’ model came out; and lastly 1997 saw the ‘40th Anniversary’ model arrive. Complementing the broad number of model variations was a substantial number of mechanical differences between models. The basic vehicle specifications for all model types are listed below.

Engine:


6-cylinder, 4 litre overhead cam

6-cylinder, 4.5 litre dual overhead cam

6-cylinder, 4.2 litre diesel

6-cylinder, 4.2 litre diesel turbo

Transmission:


5-speed manual or 4-speed automatic

Power:


111kw for 4 litre

96kw for 4.2 litre diesel

158kw for 4.2 litre diesel turbo

Final Drive:


Full time four wheel drive



The engine was the most significant variation between models. The standard 4 litre engine was taken out of production in 1992. It was replaced with a more powerful 4.5 litre dual overhead cam, 4-valve-per-cylinder engine which became the standard. The other options were either a 4.2 litre diesel or a 4.2 litre turbo diesel engine.

There were a few reported problems for models manufactured between 1992 and 199815:

*
* The tyres on the 1992-1994 models wore excessively on their outer shoulders.
* The Chassis may crack at the steering box mounting and bracket after heavy off-road use.
* The steering shaft joint protector may come loose
Diesel and turbo models up to 1994 may experience a breakage of the vacuum pump rotor blades on the brake booster.

4.1.2 Security features

The security features of the Landcruiser are minimal. No model from 1992 to 1998 comes with a factory fitted immobiliser. While the Landcruiser does not come with an immobiliser, it has been suggested that they are somewhat more difficult to break into than the Excel (Mike Seidl, September 1st 2003). However, once entered, the steering lock can be easily broken and the vehicle driven away (Mike Seidl, September 1st 2003).

Another noted security problem with the Landcruiser is that its chassis is attached to its running gear in only eight places. As such, rebirthing may simply involve ‘stealing an equivalent Landcruiser, unbolting the body of the stolen car, and plonking it onto the chassis of a wreck’ (Gerry Bashford, September 18th 2003). Importantly, this procedure may be used for the re-birthing of much older Landcruiser with the identification of a younger vehicle, for on-sale at a greater profit (Mike Seidl, September 1st 2003; Lisa Young, August 26th 2003).

The problem concerning the chassis is compounded by the fact that the VIN, compliance and build detail plates are all located on the chassis. The vehicle’s VIN is located on the driver’s side chassis rail, opposite the front suspension mount, and its aluminium build and compliance detail plates are stamped under the bonnet. It therefore becomes even easier to swap car identities, especially in the absence of any component identification technology.
4.1.3 Market share

As of June 2003 there were 64,521 registered Toyota Landcruiser 80 series vehicles (CARS 2003). The Landcruiser dominates the four-wheel drive market. Spanning the production run from 1992 to 1998, the Landcruiser has an average market share of 23.5 per cent (Glass Guide 2002). In comparison, the Mitsubishi Pajero’s market share was 12.7 per cent (Glass Guide 2002). Another substantial competitor in the 4x4 category is the Nissan Patrol, which constitutes a 9.4 per cent share of the market (Glass Guide 2002).

4.1.4 Pricing

The Landcruiser holds its value very well. A used Landcruiser may be more expensive than much newer model competitors16. The as-new retail price of a 1992 model Landcruiser was anywhere between $36,206 and $56,785. As a second hand car today, 1992 model Landcruisers generally retail between $13,000 and $24,000. Considered separately, the 1992 ‘Sahara’, a luxury model variant, was originally priced as new for between $67,289 and $92,869. Currently, a 1992 Sahara retails second hand for between $27,500 and $38,500. At the more recent end of the spectrum, Landcruisers manufactured in 1998 retailed as new for between $49,950 and $73,890. Currently, their second hand market value comes in between $20,700 and $39,800. Again, considering the Sahara separately, the 1998 model retailed as new for between $103,000 and $114,000. Its current second hand price is between $43,400 and $54,800.
4.1.5 Advertising characteristics

The Landcruiser appeals to a diverse market population. The Landcruiser is big, powerful, consumes a lot of fuel, and is marketed towards the more serious 4WD owner. It is definitely marketed towards those who wish to ‘go bush’. According to the NRMA ‘its natural element is the bush; the tougher it gets, the better the Landcruiser likes it’ (NRMA Used Car Report 2002). Presumably then, the target market is middle aged, relatively wealthy men who enjoy going off-road. It may also be marketed to farmers, or any people who work in the countryside as opposed to city dwellers. Still, despite its country and off-road appeal, it must be noted that the Landcruiser is also adopted as a suburban family car. The overall picture is that the Landcruiser appeals to both rural and urban markets, city drivers and off-road enthusiasts.

Typically, the second hand market is interested in, and subsequently advertises, engine type, model type, seating capacity and any optional extras. Nearly every advertisement lists the year of manufacture, whether it is standard/RV/DX/GXL or Sahara, and its specific engine type (4litre, 4.5litre twin-cam, or 4.2litre turbo diesel). Interestingly, a general trend in advertisements is to avoid the glossy statements evidenced in the sale of the Hyundai Excel X3 or the BMW 318 E36. About the most detailed sales pitch given is ‘immaculate condition’ or ‘as new’. An inference here is that in general, the market for Landcruisers is more interested in its engine and off-road performance than its stylistic or aesthetic appeal.

Another facet of the Landcruiser market, which is distinct from both the BMW and (to a slightly lesser degree) the Hyundai, is the existence of a large wrecks, parts and components market. This market occupies advertising space alongside standard, mechanically sound vehicles. Further, the market advertises vehicles in various states of composition. For instance, a Landcruiser wreck may be purchased, various parts are proffered for sale, and even the running gear of a Landcruiser is advertised17.

6.
Competing vehicles

In competition for this rather eclectic market are numerous rival vehicles: of note are the Nissan Patrol/Pathfinder, Ford Explorer, Land Rover, Jeep Cherokee/Wrangler, Holden Jackaroo, Subaru Outback, Mitsubishi Pajero, Ssangyong Musso, Mercedes 4WD, and the BMW X5.

4.2 Vehicle Comparison

The Toyota Landcruiser 80 series was compared against the Mitsubishi Pajero. The factors they are compared across are theft incidence and theft rate, recovery incidence and recovery rate, and the level of damage and stripping. All data was supplied by CARS, and reflects thefts reported between July 2002 and June 2003.

The table below (Table 9) summarises national theft data for the Landcruiser and the Pajero, covering the number registered, theft total, theft rate per 1,000 registered, number unrecovered, and percentage unrecovered.


Table 9. Australia. Total registrations, theft number, theft rate, number unrecovered and percentage unrecovered. Toyota Landcruiser 80 series and Mitsubishi Pajero. July 2002-June 2003.



Toyota Landcruiser 80 series


Mitsubishi Pajero

Number registered


64,521


46,676

Theft number


148


148

Theft rate (per 1,000 reg)


2.3


3.2

Number unrecovered


64


44

Percentage unrecovered


43.8%


29.7%

4.2.1 Theft incidence and theft rate

Table 9 shows that nationally, there was an equal 148 thefts for both the Landcruiser and the Pajero. Considering jurisdictional differences, the results reveal that of the 148 Landcruiser stolen, 66 (44.6%) were from NSW, and for the Pajero 88 (59.6%) of the 148 vehicles stolen nationally were stolen in NSW. For South Australia, 5 (3.4%) Landcruiser were stolen, and 5 (3.4%) Pajero. The variations in the data, showing a marked preference for the Pajero in NSW, but not for Australia as a whole, reinforce the view that incidences of car theft very much depend on the local market (Gerry Bashford, September 18th 2003).

The theft rate for the Landcruiser was 2.3 per 1,000 registered, compared to the Pajero’s theft rate of 3.2 per 1,000 registered. As with the total number of thefts, there seems to be little difference between the two vehicles when it comes to theft rates. Breaking the data down by year of manufacture also reveals substantial homogeneity – the Landcruiser’s theft rate fluctuating between 1.7 and 3.3 between 1992 and 1998 models, with the Pajero’s theft rate varying slightly more, between 0.9 and 4.4 for 1992 to 1998 models. It is possible that the striking similarities between these two vehicles are reflective of vehicle characteristics generic to the 4x4. In general, 4WD vehicles have ‘…low levels of security … they’re easy to re-identify … they’ve got a very low level of identification systems on them, they’re worth lots of money, and they’re popular’ (Gerry Bashford, September 18th 2003). Based on simply theft data it could be argued that motor vehicle thieves make little differentiation between specific 4x4 vehicles. However, such a position fails to take into account the different motivations of opportunistic and professional motor vehicle thieves. It should also be noted the diversity of appeal that the Landcruiser has, which is reflected in its market share, may also have an influence on the level of professional theft witnessed for this vehicle. In exploring this idea, the recovery data for the Toyota Landcruiser 80 series and Mitsubishi Pajero are analysed in the following section.
4.2.2 Theft incidence and theft rate

Table 9 shows that of the 148 Landcruiser stolen, 64 (43.8%) were unrecovered as of June 2003. For the Mitsubishi Pajero, 44 (29.7%) of the 148 stolen vehicles were unrecovered as of June 2003. Considering also the state of NSW, where 66 Landcruiser and 88 Pajero were stolen, 33 Landcruiser (50%) and 25 Pajero (28.4%) remained unrecovered as of June 2003. To display this difference graphically, Figure 6 displays both the national and NSW specific percentages of unrecovered Toyota Landcruiser 80 series and Mitsubishi Pajero, and compares this against the expected average non-recovery rate.

Figure 6. Comparison of percentage of all unrecovered vehicles, compared against national percentage of unrecovered Toyota Landcruiser 80 series’ and Mitsubishi Pajero. July 2002-June 2003




It is at this point that marked differences between the Landcruiser and Pajero become apparent. For the Landcruiser, the national percentage of unrecovered vehicles was 43.8 per cent, and 50 per cent for the state of NSW. In contrast, the Pajero had a relatively much lower national percentage of unrecovered vehicles of 29.7 per cent, and 28.4 per cent for NSW – much closer to the expected average. The data on unrecovered vehicles suggests that the Mitsubishi Pajero as a target for professional theft and rebirthing is not at a substantially greater risk than the general population of cars (see the next section for counter-indications). In striking contrast, the Toyota Landcruiser 80 series is only recovered approximately half of the time. Where recovery rates are taken as an indication of the extent of professional theft and rebirthing for any vehicle, the data would indicate that the Landcruiser is highly favoured among professional motor vehicle thieves.

A number of factors may contribute towards the marked differences in recovery rates between the Landcruiser and the Pajero. However, it should be noted that their exposure levels are not that dissimilar, and furthermore their security levels are roughly equivalent. What does differentiate these vehicles is their market desirability and pricing. Gerry Bashford makes the point that ‘[t]he Landcrusier has always been a popular vehicle, and I think that popularity is reflected in the theft stats’ (September 18th 2003). Building on this point, the popularity of the Landcruiser operates to push its second hand market value above that of the Pajero (and most of its competitors). As an example, a typical price range for a 1992 Pajero is between $11,900 and $18,990 – dependent on specific model variations and optional extras. For the equivalent 1992 Landcruiser, its second hand market value is between $13,000 and $24,000. As a further example, the 1998 Pajero’s market value is between $18,990 and $34,990, compared to the Landcruiser’s second hand market value that is between $20,700 and $39,800. On average then, a second hand Landcruiser is worth up to $5,000 more than an equivalent Pajero.

It seems reasonable to infer that this market dynamic operating for the Landcruiser makes it more appealing. To again quote Gerry Bashford, speaking about the Landcruiser, ‘…profit margins are good, marketability is good. Everything just adds up’ (September 18th). The end result of everything adding up is that the Toyota Landcruiser 80 series becomes the preferred vehicle amongst organised motor vehicle thieves for rebirthing.
4.2.3 Stripping and damage statistics
The tables ay be a bit screwed up in the cut and paste but the site is here. Also I can't fit all the relevant 80series data in this post :


http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache...en%20target=nw

Or the word doc :

http://www.carsafe.com.au/pdf/report_14.doc





TY


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Old 06-25-05, 07:06 PM   #2 (permalink)
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