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07-14-08, 08:23 AM
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#31 (permalink)
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250+ Club
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Location: Redneck Central, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by re_guderian
Can anyone who says this please post up some data that verifies it? Oil is up 50% this year alone, from Jan to now. How much has the dollar declined in the same period?
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Not quite that dramatic, but the dollar vs euro has the dollar sliding considerably over the past few years, most of it over the last year and change 
Euro to U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate - Yahoo! Finance
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Alex
トヨタ ランドクルーザー
'76 Yella FJ40 短いバス
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Quote:
Ronaldus Magnus
It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
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07-14-08, 08:40 AM
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#32 (permalink)
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Stand and deliver
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: west australia
Posts: 8,084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by re_guderian
Can anyone who says this please post up some data that verifies it? Oil is up 50% this year alone, from Jan to now. How much has the dollar declined in the same period?
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This graph inidcates that if oil was traded in Euro's it would be $80 a barrel right now.
How Do Oil Prices Compare in Other Currencies? - Seeking Alpha
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07-14-08, 08:44 AM
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#33 (permalink)
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250+ Club
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phrogg4evr
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So a 10% decline in the dollar is responsible for a 50% increase in oil?  (Jan to July '08). Why hasn't every other import that trades in $'s gone up 50% then in the last 6 months? This implied cause/effect curve (which I doubt exists to the extent of the recent run-ups we've seen) seems to have dramatically changed it's slope in the last 6 months then, compared to the last several years... I call BS as a major impact on the last 6 month's change in oil price...
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Rob G
1995 FZJ80 2000 UZJ100
AZ
Copper State Cruisers #046
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07-14-08, 08:48 AM
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#34 (permalink)
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Stand and deliver
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: west australia
Posts: 8,084
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I dont think anyone is saying the sliding USD is the only cause,but one of many
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You re not a protected species,you re not a f****** koala bear
Mr Rentokill
HZJ75 cab chassis 95 model ,stocker
FJ73+1HZ Diesel NEW GEARBOX
1HZ =same power as 3F with 30% better fuel economy
2in Dobinsons lift.Powerdown adj shocks
33 in BFG A/T
HJ61 with slidin windas regrettfully SOLD:(
Holden Commodore V6
Honda XR650L
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07-14-08, 09:10 AM
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#35 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Redneck Central, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by re_guderian
So a 10% decline in the dollar is responsible for a 50% increase in oil? (Jan to July '08). Why hasn't every other import that trades in $'s gone up 50% then in the last 6 months? This implied cause/effect curve (which I doubt exists to the extent of the recent run-ups we've seen) seems to have dramatically changed it's slope in the last 6 months then, compared to the last several years... I call BS as a major impact on the last 6 month's change in oil price... |
Like rosco said, it's not all of it, but part of it. Since beginning of '06, a 30% slode, since beginning of 04, almost 40% slide. In inflation/stagflation is a bitch. Not gonna be the direct cause, but is don't help much 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bull
Fuck it I will burn it as fast as they can make it..
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Alex
トヨタ ランドクルーザー
'76 Yella FJ40 短いバス
'94 FJZ80 Cummins 4BTA Conversion
'07 Tacoma, stock but locked
Quote:
Ronaldus Magnus
It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
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07-14-08, 09:11 AM
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#36 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Jun 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roscoFJ73
I dont think anyone is saying the sliding USD is the only cause,but one of many
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I think people don't know, and "don't know" doesn't sell, so they'll throw all kinds of crap against the wall and see what sticks...
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Rob G
1995 FZJ80 2000 UZJ100
AZ
Copper State Cruisers #046
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07-14-08, 09:43 AM
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#37 (permalink)
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Forum Lifer
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: McCall, ID
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What I don't like is the administration pushing the supply/demand argument to further their obvious self-interest, when clearly the accounting doesn't add up.
Bush to lift ban on exploring for oil in OCS - Yahoo! News
We need to elect a physician as president so we can triple payments to doctors. 
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We do not see things as they are;
We see things as we are. --Talmud
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07-14-08, 09:54 AM
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#38 (permalink)
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Site Addict
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Tucson AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by re_guderian
So a 10% decline in the dollar is responsible for a 50% increase in oil? (Jan to July '08). Why hasn't every other import that trades in $'s gone up 50% then in the last 6 months? This implied cause/effect curve (which I doubt exists to the extent of the recent run-ups we've seen) seems to have dramatically changed it's slope in the last 6 months then, compared to the last several years... I call BS as a major impact on the last 6 month's change in oil price... |
The strength of the dollar is just on piece of the puzzle. The last time that the dollar had parity with the euro was in 2001.
The part of the puzzle is the unreliable numbers on supply/demand.
The other part of the puzzle is the massive influx of investments in commodities (oil included) as a investment vehicle to hedge against the falling dollar and inflation in the US.
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"SUBDUCTION leads to OROGENY"
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07-14-08, 09:54 AM
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#39 (permalink)
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Yankee Toys Prez
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Windsor, VT USA
Posts: 2,721
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I'm actually PRO "more drilling" not to lower prices now but to expand for the future. That said, there's not much point in granting MORE offshore drilling leases when the oil companies aren't yet tapping the 90 Million acres they already have.
Oil industry draws fire for leaving leased land untapped - Jun. 23, 2008
The con seems so clear, big oil and a sympathetic oil man in the White House use high gas/oil prices as a catalyst get the US to sell MORE oil rights to Big Oil even though they already have 90 million acres of leases they haven't even touched yet.
It's a shame so many citizens are blind to the long con. It's like someone setting you on fire so they can sell you a fire extinguisher.
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Dave
Prez Yankee Toys
Windsor, Vermont
twitter~sporin
'93 FZJ80 Elockers, MAF/OME lift, 35" TrXus MT's, TJM Front Bumper, RockDog4x4 Custom Rear Bumper
Yankee Toys
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07-14-08, 10:11 AM
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#40 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IDave
We need to elect a physician as president so we can triple payments to doctors. |
Amen in that, the  is working the residency at Duke right now, if that happens, she will be able to support me to the lifestyle to which I have become accustomed 
__________________
Alex
トヨタ ランドクルーザー
'76 Yella FJ40 短いバス
'94 FJZ80 Cummins 4BTA Conversion
'07 Tacoma, stock but locked
Quote:
Ronaldus Magnus
It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.
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07-14-08, 10:26 AM
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#41 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Latitude 58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sporin
The con seems so clear, big oil and a sympathetic oil man in the White House use high gas/oil prices as a catalyst get the US to sell MORE oil rights to Big Oil even though they already have 90 million acres of leases they haven't even touched yet.
It's a shame so many citizens are blind to the long con. It's like someone setting you on fire so they can sell you a fire extinguisher.
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It's interesting that Alaskan politicians haven't been talking drilling lately. Both Stevens and Murkowski have recently touted alternative energy development at both the state and federal level.
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Bret
Juneau, Ak
1989 FJ62 3FE 125K
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07-14-08, 03:04 PM
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#42 (permalink)
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Site Addict
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Holland, Michigan
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Scroll down on this page to "The Biggest Transfer of Wealth in History", excellent read:
The Biggest Transfer of Wealth in History
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"if thou would have peace, be thou then prepared for war".
"Except for ending Slavery, Fascism, Nazism and Communism, WAR has never solved anything." - Ronald Reagan
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07-14-08, 03:43 PM
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#43 (permalink)
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Forum Lifer
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Abby
Posts: 3,814
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IDave
Seeing as you are from Canuckistan, you probably have different trade laws applying to you.
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Unfortunately we do ...
If you are an amoral or an immoral resouce company, then the TSE or the VSE is the stock exchange to be. Unlike the US where American companies can be held liable for their actions over seas, resource companies registered on the Canadian stock exchanges will see no punative action in Canada unless the dictator they are helping stay in power decided to punish them. Its one of the reasons little Canada is #2 in mining corps on its stock exchanges (was #1 until the UK beat them out last year).
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07-15-08, 01:13 PM
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#44 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Silicon Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by re_guderian
Can anyone who says this please post up some data that verifies it? Oil is up 50% this year alone, from Jan to now. How much has the dollar declined in the same period?
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Do some reading dude, are you ones of those typical american who spend more time at the sport channel :
Oil prices plummet $7 on spreading economic fears - Yahoo! News
Again as I said, it's speculation and the fall of the dollars...
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'75 FJ40 mostly stock....yeah right!
'98 UZJ100
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07-15-08, 01:32 PM
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#45 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: opossum cove, fl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mustardfj40
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Bad engrish...
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1974 Pantera and something else I can't remember...
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07-15-08, 05:18 PM
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#46 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Arizona
Posts: 610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mustardfj40
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I don't watch sports. (and I get my news from MUD). I pulled some EUR/$ and historical oil price data. Year over year shows some interesting trends. 2007, and up through April of '08 shows real good correlation of oil and the $ decline, but then in Apr the correlation shifts dramatically and is less correlated. Based on $ decline only, I estimate price should be around $115/bbl (using the '07-early'08 data). So, the other $30 is speculation? When it comes to oil, you can read too much, as most people don't seem to have any data to back up their whimsical, flip-flop, headline-of-the-day op/ed piece...
edit: - > and $6 isn't much of a "plummet" given the recent intra-day and day-to-day variation in the price of a bbl... "Plummet" these days in oil means that the previous day's high will be seen in a matter of hours (OK, maybe a day or two)
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Rob G
1995 FZJ80 2000 UZJ100
AZ
Copper State Cruisers #046
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07-15-08, 05:25 PM
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#47 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Portland, Oregon
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I heard an interview a couple days ago with an oil speculator. He talked about how much liquidity and stability they added to the market and so forth. He did state that they (speculators) may increase the prices slightly, but only by $20 or so a barrel.
Sounded like a smooth politician to me.
__________________
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-1997 LX450
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07-15-08, 05:27 PM
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#48 (permalink)
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250+ Club
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Arizona
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sprocket3
I heard an interview a couple days ago with an oil speculator. He talked about how much liquidity and stability they added to the market and so forth. He did state that they (speculators) may increase the prices slightly, but only by $20 or so a barrel.
Sounded like a smooth politician to me.
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"slightly" = 15%??
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Rob G
1995 FZJ80 2000 UZJ100
AZ
Copper State Cruisers #046
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phrogg4evr
